Aboveground growth and competition in forest gap models: An analysis for studies of climatic change

Gap models have been used extensively in ecological studies of forest struc ture and succession, and they should be useful tools for studying potential responses of forests to climatic change. There is a wide variety of gap mo dels with different degrees of physiological detail, and the manner in whic h the effects of climatic factors are analyzed varies across that range of detail. Here we consider how well the current suite of gap models can accom modate climatic-change issues, and we suggest what physiological attributes and responses should be added to better represent responses of aboveground growth and competition. Whether a gap model is based on highly empirical, aggregated growth functions or more mechanistic expressions of carbon uptak e and allocation, the greatest challenge will be to express allocation corr ectly. For example, incorporating effects of elevated CO2 requires that the fixed allometry between stem volume and leaf area be made flexible. Simula tion of the effects of climatic warming should incorporate the possibility of a longer growing season and acclimation of growth processes to changing temperature. To accommodate climatic-change factors, some of the simplicity of gap models must be sacrificed by increasing the amount of physiological detail, but it is important that the capability of the models to predict c ompetition and successional dynamics not be sacrificed.