G. Mello et al., Prediction of the development of pregnancy-induced hypertensive disorders in high-risk pregnant women by artificial neural networks, CLIN CH L M, 39(9), 2001, pp. 801-805
Pregnancy-induced hypertensive disorders (PIHD) are common complications of
pregnancy and are associated with increased maternal and fetal morbidity.
In this study, artificial neural networks (aNN) and multivariate logistic r
egression (MLR) were applied to a set of clinical and laboratory data (urea
, creatinine, uric acid, total proteins, hematocrit, iron and ferritin) col
lected at 16 and 20 weeks of gestation. The efficacy of the two approaches
in predicting the development of PIHD in 303 consecutive normotensive pregn
ant women at high risk of pre-eclampsia and intrauterine fetal growth retar
dation was then compared. The aNN were trained with a randomly selected set
of 187 patient records and evaluated on the remainder (n = 116). MLR analy
sis was done with the same 116 patients. The performance of each model was
assessed using receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves. Pregnancies h
ad a normal physiological course in 227 cases, whereas 76 (25.1%) women dev
eloped PIHD during the third trimester. The best aNN at 20 weeks yielded an
area under the ROC curve of 0.952, the sensitivity of 86.2%, the specifici
ty of 95.4%, the positive predictive value of 86.2% and the negative predic
tive value of 95.5% for PIHD. The corresponding values for the MLR at 20 we
eks were 0.962, 79.3%, 97.7%, 92% and 93.4%, respectively. The computer-aid
ed integrated use of these conventional tests seems to provide a useful mea
ns for and early prediction of PIHD development.