Projection of diabetes burden through 2050 - Impact of changing demographyand disease prevalence in the US

OBJECTIVE - To project the number of people with diagnosed diabetes in the U.S. through 2050, accounting for changing demography and diabetes prevalen ce rates.,, RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - We combined age-, sex-, and race-specific dia gnosed diabetes prevalence rates-predicted from 1980-1998 trends in prevale nce data from the National Health Interview Survey-with Bureau of Census po pulation demographic projections. Sensitivity analyses were performed by va rying both prevalence rate and population projections. RESULTS - The number of Americans with diagnosed diabetes is projected to i ncrease 165%, from 11 million in 2000 (prevalence of 4.0%) to 29 million in 2050 (prevalence of 7.2%). The largest percent increase in diagnosed diabe tes will be among those aged greater than or equal to 75 years (+271% in wo men and +437% in men). The fastest growing ethnic group with diagnosed diab etes is expected to be black males (+363% rom 2000-2050), with black ema. m ales (+148%), and white females (+107%) following. Of the projected 18 mill ion increase in the number of cases of diabetes in 2050, 37% are due to cha nges in demographic composition, 27% are due to population growth, and 36% are due to increasing prevalence rates. CONCLUSIONS - If recent trends in diabetes prevalence rates continue linear ly over the next 50 years, future changes in the size and demographic chara cteristics of the U.S. population will lead to dramatic increases in the nu mber of Americans with diagnosed diabetes.