Crime versus justice: Is there a trade-off?

When society is divided into two groups with different actual or perceived crime rates, maintaining a low crime rate, minimizing the total number of i nnocent individuals convicted of a crime, and keeping the probability of wr ongly convicting an innocent individual equal across groups are incompatibl e social goals. This paper fully develops these trade-offs. An empirical ap plication of the model finds that these trade-offs may be substantial. Spec ifically, we estimate that innocent black Americans would be roughly eight times more likely to be wrongly convicted of murder than innocent white Ame ricans if society placed no value on equality when it comes to convictions. However, we estimate that eliminating inequality entirely could cost up to 1,900 lives annually because of a rise in the murder rate. Estimates revea l similar findings for gender inequality. In highlighting this serious dile mma, this paper suggests a need for awareness of costs of crime-reduction p olicies.