Modeling fire effects

Fire effects are modeled for a variety of reasons including: to evaluate ri sk, to develop treatment prescriptions, to compare management options, and to understand ecosystems. Fire effects modeling may be conducted at a range of temporal and spatial scales. First-order fire effects are those that ar e the direct result of the combustion process such as plant injury and deat h, fuel consumption and smoke production. Modeling these effects provides a n important cornerstone for models that operate at larger spatial and tempo ral scales. Detailed physical models of heat transfer and the combustion pr ocess under development should provide a vehicle for quantifying fire treat ment and predicting fire effects. Second-order fire effects are indirect co nsequences of fire and other post-fire interactions such as weather. They m ay take place a few hours to many decades after a fire. Some important seco nd-order fire effects are smoke dispersion, erosion, and vegetation success ion. Many approaches have been used to model fire effects including empiric al, mechanistic, stochastic, and combinations of all three. Selection of th e appropriate model approach and scale depends on the objectives of the mod eler, as well as the quality and quantity of available data. This paper is not meant to provide an exhaustive review of fire effects models. Instead, it presents a background in approaches to modeling fire effects to provide managers a basis for selecting and interpreting simulation tools.