General equilibrium and the ban on British beef exports

We present an ex post CGE evaluation of the ban on exports of British beef, imposed in 1996 and lifted in 1999. A specific aim is to assess the degree to which cattle, slaughtering and meat processing sectors in the UK recove r their pre-ban positions. More generally, the modelling exercise can be vi ewed as identifying the extent to which an economy recovers from a policy s hock, or similar, when that shock is removed or reversed. Results suggest t hat following removal of the ban, exports, output, factor use and trade bal ances in the directly affected sectors, in the short run, arc below their 1 996 pre-ban levels. Whilst some recovery is evident in the long run, not al l sectors regain their pre-ban positions. The results offer further insight s into the general equilibrium effects of what was a highly unusual policy shock to the UK economy, that of a three year ban on exports of beef.