The transmission and persistence of 'urban legends': Sociological application of age-structured epidemic models

This paper describes two related epidemic models of rumor transmission in a n age-structured population. Rumors share with communicable disease certain basic aspects, which means that formal models of epidemics may be applied to the transmission of rumors. The results show that rumors may become entr enched very quickly and persist for a long time, even when skeptics are mod eled to take an active role in trying to convince others that the rumor is false. This is a macrophenomeon, because individuals eventually cease to be lieve the rumor, but are replaced by new recruits. This replacement of form er believers by new ones is an aspect of all the models, but the approach t o stability is quicker, and involves smaller chance of extinction, in the m odel where skeptics actively try to counter the rumor, as opposed to the mo del where interest is naturally lost by believers. Skeptics hurt their own cause. The result shows that including age, or a variable for which age is a proxy (e.g., experience), can improve model fidelity and yield important insights.