We have studied the balance between olefin insertion and beta -hydrogen tra
nsfer to monomer for all "well-defined" aluminum polymerization catalysts r
eported to date. Consistently, the balance is predicted to be significantly
worse than for Me2AlEt, implying that none of the proposed active species,
should give a high-molecular-mass polymer. A more systematic analysis of l
igand effects allows a rationalization of these results and shows that smal
l modifications to the proposed active species are unlikely to solve the pr
oblem. We conclude that olefin polymerization at a single aluminum center i
s, rather unlikely. Alternative interpretations of the experimental data ar
e discussed.