Stochastic simulation of catastrophic hail and windstorm indemnities in the Dutch greenhouse sector

A risk analysis was performed to examine the effect of changes in the Dutch greenhouse sector on the probability of occurrence and magnitude of indemn ities induced by catastrophic natural hazards. Analyzed historical indemnit ies, which included direct and consequential losses resulting from severe h ail and windstorms, were used as input in a stochastic simulation model. Ap plications of the stochastic simulation model were illustrated under altern ative risk conditions. A comparison was made between the current structure of greenhouse production and the expected structure in the next decade that differs with respect to the spatial distribution and average size.