PREDICTING THE PROBABILITY FOR FALLS IN COMMUNITY-DWELLING OLDER ADULTS

Background and Purpose. The objective of this retrospective case-contr ol study was to develop a model for predicting the likelihood of falls among community-dwelling older adults. Subjects. Forty-four community -dwelling adults (greater than or equal to 65 years of age) with and w ithout a history of falls participated. Methods. Subjects completed a health status questionnaire and underwent a clinical evaluation of bal ance and mobility function. Variables that differed between fallers an d nonfallers were identified, using t tests and cross tabulation with chi-square tests. A forward stepwise regression analysis was carried o ut to identify a combination of variables that effectively predicted f all status. Results. Five variables were found to be associated with f all history. These variables were analyzed using logistic regression. The final model combined the score on the Berg Balance Scale with a se lf-reported history of imbalance to predict fall risk. Sensitivity was 91%, and specificity was 82%. Conclusion and Discussion. A simple pre dictive model based on two risk factors can be used by physical therap ists to quantify fall risk in community-dwelling older adults. Identif ication of patients with a high fall risk can lead to an appropriate r eferral into a fall prevention program. In addition, fall risk can be used to calculate change resulting from intervention.