We analyse modulational (large-scale) perturbations of stationary solutions
of the two-dimensional incompressible Navier-Stokes equations. The station
ary solutions are cellular flows with stream function phi = sin y(1) sin y(
2) + delta cos y(1) cos y(2), 0 less than or equal to delta less than or eq
ual to 1. Using multiscale techniques we derive effective coefficients, inc
luding the eddy viscosity tensor, for the (averaged) modulation equations.
For cellular flows with closed streamlines we give rigorous asymptotic boun
ds at high Reynolds number for the tensor of eddy viscosity by means of sad
dle-point variational principles. These results allow us to compare the lin
ear and nonlinear :modulational stability of cellular flows with no channel
s and of shear flows at high Reynolds number. We find that the geometry of
the underlying cellular flows plays an important role in the stability of t
he modulational perturbations. The predictions of the multiscale analysis a
re compared with direct numerical simulations.