Rising college expectations among youth in the United States - A comparison of the 1979 and 1997 NLSY

We examine the rise in college expectations among 15- and 16-year-olds in t he 1979 anti 1997 NLSY. Probit models estimate the effects of gender, race/ ethnicity, family, characteristics, and local economic conditions on the pr obability, of expecting a college degree. Race/ethnic differences and the i nfluences of family resources and county, economic conditions declined betw een 1979 and 1997. In contrast, girls became more likely, to expect a colle ge degree than boys, and family structure grew in importance over time. Fam ily, resources and structure appear to shape expectations largely, through differences in school peers, teacher quality and interest, and past academi c performance.