Multiple factor scoring system for risk assessment of acute pancreatitis

Background. The initial prognostic classification of a pathologic event has important implications for management, outcome, and resource utilization. A variety of prognostic classification methods have been developed, but non e has thus far shown consistent predictive accuracy in individual patients. In an attempt to overcome some of the limitations encountered by earlier w orkers, we have developed a simplified system for evaluation and prognosis of acute pancreatitis. Materials and methods. We studied retrospectively 306 patients with acute p ancreatitis. Nonstandard statistical calculations were used to create risk indices for pancreatitis severity for all 13 variables which were included in a standard chart. Results. The risk assessment rule's correct prediction is 81.32% (sensitivi ty) and 93.95% (specificity) for severe and mild pancreatitis, respectively . The total accuracy is 90.20%. Conclusion. The results of this nonstandard small retrospective study seem promising. It should remain experimental until larger prospective studies c onfirm the usefulness of the method. (C) 2001 Academic Press.