Long-term hurricane risk assessment and expected damage to residential structures

This paper presents results from a study to evaluate long-term hurricane ri sks in the Southeastern United States using event-based simulation procedur es. These risks are defined by (1) the statistical extreme wind climate, an d (2) the expected insured losses from damage to residential structures. A probabilistic hurricane event model developed by the authors is used to eva luate long-term risks. The event model parameters were derived from a stati stical analysis of storms affecting the Southeastern United States and incl ude radius of maximum winds, central pressure difference, landfall. locatio n, storm track, and decay rate. The 50-year mean recurrence interval (MRI) gradient-level and surface gust wind speeds are evaluated for the region in vestigated using results from the simulation analysis. When coupled with a damage model, also developed by the authors, the results from the event-bas ed simulation analysis are used to provide estimates of the expected losses . The states of North Carolina, South Carolina, and Florida are used to dem onstrate the applicability of this procedure for evaluating expected losses . Implications for setting design wind speeds as well as risk-consistent in surance rates are discussed. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights rese rved.