Predictability of the UK variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease epidemic

Back-calculation analysis of the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease epidemic in the United Kingdom is used to estimate the number of infected individua ls and future disease incidence. The model assumes a hazard of infection pr oportional to the incidence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in the Unit ed Kingdom and accounts for precautionary control measures and very wide ra nges of incubation periods. The model indicates that current case data are compatible with numbers of infections ranging from a few hundred to several millions. In the tatter case, the model suggests that the mean incubation period must be well beyond the human life-span, resulting in disease epidem ics of at most several thousand cases.