In this note, we define firstly a compositive parameter as an index describ
ing the level of solar activity in a solar cycle. The parameter is derived
from a combination of the smoothed monthly mean sunspot number with the flu
ctuation of the associated monthly mean sunspot numbers to the smoothed one
. Then, a method is developed for estimating the time of the appearance of
a solar maximum based on the conception of similar cycles. An application o
f the method to the 23rd solar cycle shows that the maximum of the cycle sh
ould have appeared in the period from April to August 2000, and the descend
ing phase of Cycle 23 has come.