Evidence of peak-to-peak dynamics in ecology

Remarkably irregular peaks characterize the dynamics of many plant and anim al populations. As such peaks are often associated with undesirable consequ ences (e.g. pest outbreaks, epidemics, forest fires), the forecast of the f orthcoming peak is a problem of major concern. Here we show, through the an alysis of a number of models and of some of the longest and most celebrated ecological time-series, that the intensity of the forthcoming peak can oft en be predicted simply from the previous peaks. When this is possible, one can also predict the time of occurrence of the forthcoming peak.