This paper analyzes evidence on changes in disability among the elderly and
considers its implications. Disability among the elderly has declined by 1
percent or more per year for the past several decades. Strong evidence rel
ates these changes to improved medical technology and to behavioral changes
. Changes in socioeconomic status, disease exposure, and use of supportive
aids are likely important as well, although their magnitude is difficult to
gauge. Should disability improvements continue, the projected increase in
medical spending resulting from technological changes in health care would
be moderated, but not eliminated. Disability change also may facilitate an
increase in age of retirement.