Carbon dioxide emissions from international aviation: 1950-2050

CO2 emissions from international aviation are important since they are beyo nd the scope of control of the Kyoto agreement. A statistical time-series ( 29 year) analysis yielded a significant relation between the sales of bunke r jet fuel, world crude oil prices and global gross domestic product (GDP). The model allows the calculation of future emissions. The required model i nputs (forecasts for global GDP and world oil price) are taken from global economic scenarios. Between 1995 and 2050, emissions of CO2 may increase by a factor 3-6. These results are similar to earlier scenarios obtained with entirely different methodologies. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All right s reserved.