Moments of opportunity - Recognizing conditions of ripeness for international mediation between enduring rivals

Some points in time are more favorable for mediation success than others an d result from the concatenation of contextual factors that encourage moveme nt toward more cooperative behavior by disputants. Ripeness for mediation b etween enduring rivals is examined by focusing on mediation success in the short and extended term. Results suggest that the factors conducive to the achievement of short-term mediation success differ significantly from those that promote extended-term improvement in the rivalry relationship. These results help to reconcile some of the diversity of expectations in the ripe ness literature by demonstrating that short-term and extended-term mediatio n success follow distinct dynamics.