Human effects in construction contract price forecasting: Experience and experiential learning styles

This paper reports on a fully structured interview survey, using a multisec tional questionnaire, of experienced construction contract price forecaster s. The aim of the research was to investigate the relationship between the accuracy of "early-stage" forecasts and experience (defined in terms of the forecasters' length of service as a forecaster and the number of forecasts prepared), learning styles, and approaches to learning. The results show t hat, although the forecasters rated experience very highly, the relationshi ps between their ability to learn from experience, measured in terms of ind ividual learning styles and approaches to learning, and the quality of thei r forecasts were found to be very different from those anticipated. No sign ificant correlations were found between forecasting accuracy and the experi ence measures used, except for the approaches-to-learning dimensions labele d Risk taking, Insecurity, and Self-confidence. The results for the Insecur ity and Self-confidence dimensions suggest that balanced forecasters (i.e., those who were neither insecure nor overconfident) produce more consistent forecasts. Similarly, the results for the Risk-taking dimension indicate t hat high-risk takers tend to underestimate whereas those who are more conse rvative tend to overestimate contract prices.