One and a half centuries of demographic transition in Nepal

This paper examines the past and prospective demographic transition in Nepa l. Sparse data from the pre-1961 censuses suggest that mortality decline be gan during 1930s and allow rough estimates of fertility and mortality level s prior to 1961. Fertility decline began sometime between 1961 and early 19 80s, with the total fertility rate declining from about 6 to 5 children per woman by early 1990s. The four scenarios of future fertility decline and p opulation growth presented in the paper help draw several conclusions. A co ntinuation of the recent slow pace of fertility decline would result in a t otal population of slightly over 100 million by the end of the next century (Scenario I). More rapid decline, similar to the median experience of Asia n countries, would reduce this growth to below 60 million (Scenario III). S till more rapid decline, close to the limit of what has been observed in co untries that have experienced the most rapid declines, could reduce the gro wth to 40 million (Scenario IV). It is possible, if not at present particul arly plausible, that very rapid decline might be achieved by a combination of smaller family sizes and rising age of childbearing. An approach to reac hing zero population growth rapidly-and anything less than a doubling of cu rrent population-may be ruled out with a high degree of certainty (Scenario II and IV). A doubling of population to 40 million is the least possible g rowth that can be expected. At the current rate of fertility decline, popul ation will increase to 100 million during this century. If a smaller popula tion in this range is considered to be in the national interest, it is as i mportant to work for more rapid fertility decline as it is to work for acco mmodation of a much larger population.