A spatial model of land use change for western Oregon and western Washington

We developed an empirical model describing the probability that forests and farmland in western Oregon and western Washington were developed for resid ential, commercial, or industrial uses during a 30-year period, as a functi on of spatial socioeconomic variables, ownership, and geographic and physic al land characteristics. The empirical model is based on a conceptual frame work of landowners maximizing the present value of the future stream of net returns derived from various land uses. The empirical model is used to com pute indices representing 50-year projections of future land use and timber land area change in western Oregon and western Washington for the Resource Planning Act assessment, and to identify counties in the study region where potential reductions in timberland area could be greatest. Results suggest that conversion of forest and farmland to urban uses will most likely occu r on lands closer to existing population centers, and rate of conversion wi ll increase with the size of those population centers. Relatively modest re ductions in the area of timberland due to conversion to urban uses are proj ected for western Oregon and western Washington, with the greatest reductio ns occurring on nonindustrial private forest land.