Theories and evidence: Mass media effects and fertility change (Reprinted from Diffusion Processes and Fertility Transition: Selected Perspectives.

We develop four major hypotheses for why mass media might affect fertility. These include economic and time use effects of the Medium, effects of idea s on policy actions of members of the elite, general effects on population basic values and fertility-specific cognitions, and effects of deliberate m ass media-based interventions on fertility-related behavior. The paper exam ines correlational and some longitudinal evidence at the cross-national, in tranational, and individual levels, as well as the evidence for effects of deliberate interventions. The correlational evidence is consistent with a m ass media effect on fertility. However, the evidence about discrete program effects, which reveals short-lived increases in demand for clinic services , is less consistent. We speculate that, if the spread of mass media has ef fects on fertility, it reflects a complex social process rather than a medi um effect or a discrete learning process: multiple channels, providing rein forcing messages, over time, producing interpersonal discussion and a slow change in values, and working at a level of social aggregation higher than the individual.