Effects of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 on global climate in the next two centuries

Previous coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulations showed that the reducti on in global warming is only moderate by year 2100 under CO2 stabilization (STA) scenarios compared with that under business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios. To further illustrate the long-term effect of stabilizing CO2 on global cl imate, we integrated a coupled ocean-atmosphere model from 1870 to 2200 for ced by historical and projected CO2, SO2 and other greenhouse gases under n ewly updated BAU and STA scenarios. Our results show that the reduction in global warming resulting from CO2 stabilization could be large (similar to1 .5 degreesC globally, and up to 12 degreesC in DJF at northern high-latitud es) by the later part of the 22(nd) century. Stabilizing the CO2 level also results in reduced changes in precipitation, soil moisture and diurnal tem perature range. BAU and STA patterns of change are similar for all variable s examined.