Evolution of global airline strategic alliance and consolidation in the twenty-first century

Global airline strategic alliances have emerged since the late 1980s, and t heir number has slowly risen through the years. Will the number of such all iances continue to proliferate? Or will airlines consolidate with one anoth er to form mega-carriers? In this paper, the likelihood of various airline consolidation and alliance development possibilities was examined based on a number of high-level trends and forces. The most probable near-term indus try alliance and consolidation structure is described, accompanied with a p robable path of evolution. These predictions have important implications fo r managers of strategic alliances, carriers who are currently in an allianc e as well as carriers who are planning to join one. (C) 2001 Elsevier Scien ce Ltd. All rights reserved.