Global airline strategic alliances have emerged since the late 1980s, and t
heir number has slowly risen through the years. Will the number of such all
iances continue to proliferate? Or will airlines consolidate with one anoth
er to form mega-carriers? In this paper, the likelihood of various airline
consolidation and alliance development possibilities was examined based on
a number of high-level trends and forces. The most probable near-term indus
try alliance and consolidation structure is described, accompanied with a p
robable path of evolution. These predictions have important implications fo
r managers of strategic alliances, carriers who are currently in an allianc
e as well as carriers who are planning to join one. (C) 2001 Elsevier Scien
ce Ltd. All rights reserved.