Establishment patterns of exotic birds are constrained by non-random patterns in introduction

Aim Species transported to and introduced into non-native environments, ter med 'introductions', constitute a growing component of many regional floras and faunas, yet not all such species successfully establish. Investigation s into why some introductions succeed while others fail are often based on analyses of the outcome of historical introductions. Such 'experiments in n ature' have the drawback that the effects of interest may be confounded bec ause they have not been randomized with respect to each other, and because the species and locations chosen for introduction may not be a random subse t of the available species or locations. Our aim is to quantify this non-ra ndomness using a global data set of bird introductions, and examine the fac tors associated with introduction probability in two subsets of these data, one taxonomic (order Anseriformes) and one geographical (British birds). Location Global. Methods Statistical analyses of the distributions among taxa and locations for 1378 introduction events for 426 bird species across the world, and sta tistical analyses of the characteristics of Ariseriform and British bird sp ecies selected for introduction. Results Global introductions of birds have been highly non-random with resp ect to taxon, location of origin, and location of introduction. Most introd uctions involve species in just five families (Phasianidae, Passeridae, Psi ttacidae, Anatidae and Columbidae), and most introductions have been to tem perate and island locations. Within the taxonomic and geographical subsets, the species chosen for introduction tend to be abundant species that would have been relatively easy to obtain. Main conclusions The characteristics of the species and locations chosen fo r introduction are not representative of species and locations in general, which limits our ability to draw general conclusions from historical record s, and generates problems of confounding and non-independence in statistica l analyses of introduction success. We suggest possible solutions for these problems.