Political business cycles, democratization, and economic reform: the case of Africa

This paper presents cross-country evidence that political business cycles a re alive and well in the nascent democracies of the developing world. Afric a provides fertile ground for the study of political business cycles. This paper uncovers systematic electorally timed interventions in five monetary and four fiscal policy variables in a panel of African countries. These fin dings are consistent with the predictions of rational opportunistic politic al business cycle theory. If Africa's increasingly frequent elections are a ssociated with reversals of fiscal and monetary policy reform, there is a p otential conflict between political and economic reform. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.