Predicting student success on a state-mandated performance-based assessment using oral reading fluency

One hundred seventy-three fourth graders were administered curriculum-based oral reading fluency measures in September, January, and May. A growth cur ve analysis was conducted to determine the relationship between students' s lope in oral reading fluency and the Washington Assessment of Student Learn ing (WASL) reading assessment, which was administered in May. Slope in oral reading fluency across the school year and the oral reading fluency probes administered in September, January, and May reliably predicted May WASL re ading performance. Follow-up analyses showed statistically reliable cut-sco res based on students' oral reading fluency performance in September, Janua ry, and May. Based on these cut-scores, the positive predictive power that September oral reading fluency low scores predicted WASL failure was .41, a nd the negative predictive power that September oral reading fluency high s cores predicted WASL success was .90. These rates are higher than the WASL failure base rate of 20% and the WASL pass base rate of 80% found in this s ample. The clinical utility of using these procedures is discussed.