Determinants of emissions growth in OECD countries

This paper analyses the sources of growth in energy-related greenhouse gas emissions for OECD countries over the period 1982-1997. It employs a decomp osition Formula that separates out the effects of changes in population, ec onomic growth, energy intensity of output (in aggregate and by sector), pri mary energy use in final energy consumption. the share of fossil fuels and the carbon intensity of fossil fuel combustion. It is shown that, in genera l, growth in emissions depends on how effectively energy use can be changed to offset the effects of economic growth. Across the OECD Lis a whole, gro wth in emissions has been mainly due to economic growth (both GDP per capit a and population growth). as well as an increase in primary energy required for final energy consumption. offset by failing energy intensities and a d eclining share of fossil fuels. Overall, the large fall in the energy inten sity of OECD economics over 1982-1997 has been driven primarily by Falling energy intensities in the services and industry sectors of the USA and the services sector of the European Union, but these have been offset somewhat by rising energy intensity of services in Japan. The influence or failing e nergy intensities and the declining share of fossil fuels weakened in the f ive-year period 1992-1997 resulting in faster emissions growth. There were sharp difference between countries, with population growth and worsening fu el mix playing a much stronger role in the USA compared to the EU and Japan , but,with the US making much larger reductions in energy use per unit of G DP. The analysis suggests that opportunities to reduce emissions are more l imited in Germany, the UK and Japan, with more opportunities in the USA, Ca nada, the Netherlands and Australia. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rig hts reserved.