A climatology of tropical storm and hurricane strikes to enhance vulnerability prediction for the southeast US coast

A simple model of the average swath of tropical storm and hurricane-force w inds to the right and left of storm centers is developed and utilized to ev aluate the geographical and temporal distribution of storm strikes at "poin t locations" along the subtropical coast of the United States. The specific area of study is from South Padre Island, Texas, to Cape Hatteras, North C arolina. The time of record is 100 years from 1901 through 2000. The analys is illustrates the great geographical variability with high frequencies of tropical storm and hurricane strikes in southeastern Louisiana, southern Fl orida, and eastern North Carolina. Coastlines with lower frequency strikes are located along the western coastline of the Gulf of Mexico in southern T exas, the northeastern coastline of the Gulf in Florida from near Apalachic ola southward to St. Petersburg, and especially along the South Atlantic co ast from Daytona Beach, Florida, northward to the vicinity of Charleston, S outh Carolina. Temporal variability is great and significant, however, and with the exception of the northern Gulf Coast, most coastal sites have expe rienced pronounced clusters of strikes separated by tens of years with very few strikes. The occurrences of tropical storm and hurricane events over t he Gulf of Mexico are related to La Nina, neutral, and El Nino seasons, but the clusters of strike events and longer runs of seasons with minimal acti vity cannot be explained on the basis of ENSO indices alone. Our findings h ave important implications for storm clusters and vulnerability prediction along coasts.