PARTY IDENTIFICATION, RETROSPECTIVE VOTING, AND MODERATING ELECTIONS IN A FEDERAL-SYSTEM - WEST-GERMANY, 1961-1989

The hypotheses of retrospective voting and moderating elections ration alize some empirical regularities in U.S. presidential and congression al elections that posed a challenge for the party identification hypot hesis. Here, these hypotheses ar:applied to the German federal system that is characterized by staggered national and Land (provincial) elec tions. They are tested using data on real GNP growth at the national a nd Land levels, party vote shares in national and Land elections, part y seat shares in national and Land parliaments, and the party composit ion of national and Land governments over the time period 1961-1989. P erhaps surprisingly, all three hypotheses-party identification, retros pective voting, and moderating elections-find empirical support when a pplied to the German federal system. Although these hypotheses were fo rmulated with reference to U.S. political institutions, they travel we ll-bar some modifications that take into account special features of t he German political system.