Application of a predictive safety model in a combustion testing environment

A predictive safety model for accident prevention and system failure, calle d Continuous Hazard Tracking and Failure Prediction Methodology, is applied at the Marshall Space Flight Center's promoted combustion test chamber. It combines the underlying principles of work sampling, control charts, and m ultivariate analysis. The sampling is performed to observe the occurrence o f conditions which may be becoming hazardous in a given system. These build ing blocks of hazards, which we have called dendritics, could result in an accident, system malfunction, or unacceptable risk conditions. The data col lected is plotted to generate the appropriate control chart, which depends on the characteristics of the given system and the protection desired. Base d on the pattern of the control chart, a system 'under control' is not dist urbed whereas a system 'out of control' is investigated for potential condi tions becoming hazardous. Then appropriate steps are taken to eliminate or control these conditions in order to maintain a desired safety status of th e system. The continuously running characteristic of this model allows for the verification that the corrective measures taken to ameliorate the 'out of control' conditions were satisfactory or whether more proactive action i s required. The results provided by the predictive model were validated wit h historical safety data. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserve d.