Modeling the impact of technological change on nutrition and marketed surplus

This study develops and demonstrates procedures for modeling the impact of agricultural technology adoption decisions on consumption and nutrition in a subsistence-farming context. The method is based on expected direct utili ty maximization (EDUM) formulation and incorporates subsistence quantities for broad aggregates of protein, calories, and other consumption goods. The method is applied to a hillside farming system of southern Honduras where new sorghum cultivars and erosion control techniques are beings introduced. The expected direct utility maximization model allows the estimation of the effects of new technology on consumption and marketed surplus in situation s where marginal values of products vary by state of nature and are affecte d by consumption and production choices. The introduction of the new techno logies in southern Honduras results in improved nutrition and substantial i ncreases in marketed surplus. These effects are due to simultaneous changes in output and consumption patterns. This work extends the subject of house hold modeling to problems with risk, and thus complements prior work in bot h the integrated analysis of production/consumption decisions and stochasti c decision analysis. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.