The electoral effect of underdevelopment: government turnover and its causes in Latin-American, Caribbean and industrialized countries

The hypothesis that government turnover and attrition in the incumbent part y share of the vote are more frequent and intense in non-industrialized cou ntries (Latin America and the Caribbean area) than in industrialized countr ies, and the possible reasons for this difference, were explored through an alysis of 328 post-war democratic elections. The data analyzed supported th is hypothesis and therefore the conclusion that the structural economic sit uation of a country exerts a significant effect on voting behavior. This ef fect was found to be independent of occasional changes in the economy, elec toral participation and of institutional factors such as re-election. Howev er, the latter diminishes the frequency of turnover and the intensity of at trition in non-industrialized countries, and for this reason, its introduct ion could improve political continuity and policy stability. (C) 2001 Elsev ier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.