CUMULATIVE RISK OF HEPATOCELLULAR-CARCINOMA IN HEPATITIS-C VIRUS CARRIERS - STATISTICAL ESTIMATIONS FROM CROSS-SECTIONAL DATA

The probability of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among hep atitis C virus (HCV) carriers during their life-time is unknown. This paper addresses the estimation of the cumulative risk of HCC among HCV carriers using cross-sectional data. Age specific prevalences of HCV carriers among the general population were estimated according to 5-ye ar age group, based on the data of 2nd- generation anti-HCV assay in b lood donors resident in Osaka (33,226 males and 29,054 females). Serop ositivity of anti-HCV among 422 HCC cases, and the Osaka Cancer Regist ry data on HCC were used in the estimations of 5-year age-specific inc idence rates of HCV-linked HCC. Using these data, the cumulative risk, i.e., the probability of contracting HCC within the following 15 year s in 50-year-old HCV carriers, was estimated as 28% for males and 6% f or females.