Survival analysis of Little Penguin Eudyptula minor chicks on Motuara Island, New Zealand

Chick survival of Little Penguins Eudyptula minor was studied on predator-f ree Motuara Island, Cook Strait, New Zealand (41 degrees 05'S, 174 degrees 15'E), in 1995 and 1996. We used the Kaplan-Meier estimator and robust Cox regression to estimate chick survival rate (+/- se) at 0.325 +/- 0.044, lea ding to an estimated survival from laying to fledging of 0.13 or a reproduc tive output of 0.26 chicks per pair and breeding attempt. Starvation posed the greatest mortality risk, followed by unknown factors and rain. Risk of death due to rain was restricted to the guard stage, whereas starvation occ urred throughout the nesting period, though with a peak in the early guard stage. Significant seasonal differences in survival rate were detected in b oth years, but with reversed trends, survival decreasing with the season in 1995 and increasing in 1996. Failure of adults to relieve their partner on the nest after chicks hatched accounted for 16% mortality or 34% of all ch ick deaths. Differences in chick survival rate between nest types were sign ificant in 1995, a year with high rainfall, but not in 1996. Nests in the b ase of hollow trees had the highest chick survival rate. Of chicks in open nests - a nest type that is unusual for this species - 5.4% fledged. Our re sults suggest that on Motuara Island good breeding sites are scarce and tha t the food supply has been poor during the years of this study.