Fuzzy scenario analysis in strategic planning

The aim of this study is to investigate the properties and method of fuzzy scenario analysis. In order to cope with the issues of data shortage and li nguistic expression of an expert in a strategic planning, this study incorp orates the concept of fuzzy set theory into scenario analysis, so that the uncertainties involved in a strategic planning can be considered. Based on Brauers and Weber's method in scenario analysis, we propose a meth od of the fuzzy scenario analysis. It includes: (1) the analysis of factors , (2) the possible analysis of outcomes, (3) the compatible analysis of sce narios, (4) the possible analysis of scenarios, and (5) the determination o f the main scenarios. Following this structure, we can describe main pictur es of future developments (usually 2 to 4) with their degrees of possibilit ies. Then we shall compare the proposed method with Brauers & Weber's metho d.