Purchase experiments of extra-ordinary and regular influence strategies using artificial and real brands

We apply basic tenets from operant conditioning and cognitive decision theo ry to test the impacts of immediate and long-term impacts of extra-ordinary and regular influence strategies on consumer brand choice. Seven hypothese s are tested in an in-home experiment with 114 subjects assigned randomly t o five groups. Hypothesis 1: Most consumers in a new environment (e.g., wit h three to four brands per product category) initially try all available br ands. Hypothesis 2: Across purchase periods, unassisted by extra-ordinary i nfluence strategies, a brand's penetration rate (i.e., share of customers b uying the brand) declines in the long run. Hypothesis 3: Across purchase pe riods unassisted by extra-ordinary influence strategies, the average buying frequency per buyer (BFB) for a brand remains stable. Hypothesis 4: Substa ntial increases (decreases) in a brand's penetration occurs during periods when extra-ordinary (i.e., assisted trial) influence strategies are impleme nted, e.g., price decreases (increases) influence substantial penetration i ncreases (decreases). Hypothesis 5: Most of the impacts on penetration resu lting from extra-ordinary influence strategies disappear in subsequent unas sisted purchase periods. Hypothesis 6: However, the relatively small long-t erm impacts of extra-ordinary influence strategies may be substantive, e.g. , the negative long-term effect reported by Doob et al. (Doob AN, Carlsmith JM, Freedman JL, Landauer TK, Tom Jr. S. Effect of initial selling price o n subsequent sales. J Pers Soc Psychol 1969;11:345-50.). Hypothesis 7: Incr eases and decreases in brand purchases are associated with positive and neg ative attitude shifts toward the brand, respectively. Hypothesis 8: The NBD /LSD models are accurate in forecasting penetration and buying frequency in unassisted (i.e., ordinary influence) purchase periods. The findings suppo rt all hypotheses except Hypotheses 3 and 7. Implications for developing a theory of influence strategies on short-term and long-term behavior are dis cussed. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.