A new index of democracy - The democratisation of the mass public in five Central European countries, 1991-1998

The analysis of political transformations in 5 post-Communist countries in Central Europe and the comparison with other post-Communist countries for t he period between 1991 and 1998 showed that we cannot and we should not spe ak of one post-Communist Eastern Europe, which would imply a homogeneity of the process of democratisation of the region, but of very different region s within the former 'Soviet Bloc'. The paper identified four different regi ons, which display diverging patterns of political change. The first and mo st advanced region is 'Central Europe', including Poland, Czech Republic, H ungary, Slovenia and Slovakia. The second distinct region is the Balkan reg ion, which encompasses Romania, Croatia, Bulgaria and the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. The third post-Communist region, which crystallised in this paper, is the post-Communist 'Baltic's', including Estonia, Lithuania and L atvia. Finally, the fourth post-Communist region is the Commonwealth of Ind ependent States (CIS), which includes Belarus, Ukraine and the Russian Fede ration. The basic feature of these four regions is that we do not find a co nvergence of patterns of political development, but a clear divergence of p aths of political change across these four main post-Communist regions. The main innovation of this paper consists in the conceptualisation and dev elopment of an 'Index of Democracy' by the author, which for the first time enables comparative political science to measure with one single figure th e extent and level of democratisation at the micro-level of political chang e, at the level of the post-Communist mass public in post-Communist Europe. The micro-analysis of the complex processes of democratisation, performed in this paper showed that Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary can be alr eady labelled as 'consolidated democracies', because more than 60 per cent of the mass public in these Central European countries are already 'democra tic post-Communist citizens'. A dear-cut majority of the mass public is als o democratic in Slovenia and Slovakia; especially Slovenia is very close to the position of a consolidated democracy. The second level of democratisation is visible in post-Communist Balkans: R omania, Croatia and Bulgaria can be characterised as 'emerging democracies' , because in all three Southern European countries more than 50 per cent of the population can be described as democrats, which is well beyond the thr eshold of 40 per cent Democrats for the type of emerging democracies. Serbi a-Montenegro is a deviant case in Southern Europe; it is a transforming soc iety with an uncertain outcome regarding the democratisation at the micro-l evel. in the Baltic region, only Estonia fulfils the criteria for an emergi ng democracy with a share of 46 per cent Democrats, whereas Lithuania and L atvia are transforming societies, where democracy is only one alternative a mongst a variety of different types of political regimes. The lowest level of democratisation at the level of the mass public was identified in the CI S region. At the micro-level of the post-Communist citizen, Poland, the Czech Republi c, Hungary, Slovenia, Slovakia, but also Romania, Croatia and Bulgaria are beyond the point of no return regarding the process of democratisation. Dem ocracy as a form of political regime is more and more embedded in these 8 s ocieties during the process of political transformation. Estonia and Belaru s are emerging democracies at the level of the population; here the interac tion between micro-support for democracy and macro-actions of the political elites will decide the future course of democratisation in these countries . Democracy is in a very weak position in the federal Republic of Yugoslavi a, Lithuania, Latvia, Ukraine and the Russian Federation with regard to the support by their own citizens. In these countries, the transformation towa rds non-democratic regimes is not impossible and the outcome of political t ransformations, even 10 years after the end of Communism, is not pointing c learly towards democracy. In these 5 transforming post-Communist societies, democracy appears to be only one option of political change, which is chal lenged by non-democratic alternatives, whereas in Central Europe, the path towards democracy is stabilised and irreversible.