Coping with unreliability in public transport chains: A case study for Netherlands

Unreliability in public transport means that actual departure and arrival t imes may deviate from the official timetable. Data on unreliability are usu ally unimodal. In this article we address unreliability from a multimodal p erspective, implying a shift of attention away from the supplier towards th e customer. Estimates of unreliability of public transport: chains in Nethe rlands are provided. In addition, customer valuation of unreliability is es timated. We find that the valuation of a certain travel time loss of I min is 27 cents, whereas the valuation of a 50%;, probability of a 2 min delay is 64 cents. This implies a strong attitude of risk aversion towards travel time of passengers. On the basis of these values an evaluation of probabil ity enhancing strategies has been carried out. We conclude that among the m ost promising means of improving the overall quality of the chains is that travellers use the bicycle as an entrance or exit mode. Other measures whic h are relatively inexpensive to implement and result in fairly large gains for the average public transport passenger, are an increase in transfer tim es and a strict constraint on bus drivers to prevent them from departing ea rly. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.