SIMULATION OF HALOCARBON PRODUCTION AND EMISSIONS AND EFFECTS ON OZONE DEPLETION

This paper describes an integrated model that simulates future halocar bon production/emissions and potential ozone depletion. Applications a nd historical production levels for various halocarbons are discussed first. A framework is then presented for modeling future halocarbon im pacts incorporating differences in underlying demands, applications, r egulatory mandates, and environmental characteristics. The model is us ed to simulate the potential impacts of several prominent issues relat ing to halocarbon production, regulation, and environmental interactio ns, notably: changes in agricultural methyl bromide use, increases in effectiveness of bromine for ozone depletion, modifications to the eli mination schedule for HCFCs, short-term expansion of CFC demand in low use compliance countries, and delays in Russian Federation compliance . individually each issue does not unequivocally represent a significa nt likely increase in long-term atmospheric halogen loading and strato spheric ozone depletion. in combination, however, these impacts could increase peak halogen concentrations and long-term integral halogen lo ading, resulting in higher levels of stratospheric ozone depletion and longer exposure to increased levels of UV radiation.