ATMOSPHERIC EFFECTS OF THE EMERGING MAINLAND CHINESE TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM AT AND BEYOND THE REGIONAL-SCALE

Local surface travel needs in the People's Republic of China (mainland China) have traditionally been met largely by nonpolluting bicycles. A major automobile manufacturing/importing effort has begun in the cou ntry over the last decade, and planning documents indicate that the Ch inese may strive to acquire more than 100 million vehicles early in th e next century. By analogy with large automotive fleets already existi ng in the western world, both regional and global scale pollution effe cts are to be expected from the increase. The present work adopts the latest projections of Chinese automobile manufacture and performs some quantitative assessments of the extent of pollution generation. Focus for the investigation is placed upon the oxidant ozone. Emissions of the precursor species nitrogen oxides and volatile organics are constr ucted based on data for the current automotive sector in the eastern p ortion of the United States. Ozone production is first estimated from measured values for continental/oceanic scale yields relative to precu rsor oxidation. The estimates are then corroborated through idealized two dimensional modeling of the photochemistry taking place in springt ime air flow off the Asian land mass and toward the Pacific Ocean. The projected fleet sizes could increase coastal and remote oceanic ozone concentrations by tens of parts per billion (ppb) in the lower tropos phere. Influences on the tropospheric aerosol system and on the major greenhouse gas carbon dioxide are treated peripherally. Nitrogen oxide s created during the vehicular internal combustion process will contri bute to nitrate pollution levels measured in the open Pacific. The pot ential for soot and fugitive dust increases should be considered as th e automotive infrastructure develops. Since the emerging Chinese autom otive transportation system will represent a substantial addition to t he global fleet and all the carbon in gasoline is eventually oxidized completely, a significant rise in global carbon dioxide inputs will en sue as well. Some policy issues are treated preliminary The assumption is made that alterations to regional oxidant/aerosol systems and to t errestrial climate are conceivable. The likelihood that the Chinese ca n achieve the latest vehicle fleet goals is discussed, from the points of view of new production, positive pollution feedbacks from a growin g automobile industry, and known petroleum reserves. Vehicular fuel an d maintenance options lying before the Chinese are outlines and compar ed. To provide some perspective on the magnitude of the environmental changes associated with an Asian automotive buildup, recent estimates of the effects of future air traffic over the Pacific Rim are describe d.