Comparison of four composite deprivation indices and two census variables in predicting dental caries in 12-year-old children in Wales

Objective To compare the explanatory power of four composite indices of soc ial economic status in their ability to predict dental caries experience. B asic research design A secondary analysis of Welsh BASCD survey data using ward aggregated dental data, census variables and composite measures of dep rivation. Clinical setting Examinations took place in schools. Participants All 12-year-old children examined in the 1996/97 survey. Main outcome meas ures The explanatory variables were Jarman index, Welsh Underprivileged Are a score (WUPA). Carstairs and Townsend indices and the outcome measure was mean DMFT. Results The amount of the mean DMFT explained by the explanatory variables ranged from 62.9% with Welsh Underprivileged Area score (WUPA) i n Bro Taf Health Authority to 4.2% with the Jarman index in Dyfed-Powys hea lth authority. Of the constituent parts of the composite variables only the percentage with no car appeared in the 'top three' variables in all but on e of six models. Conclusions The composite indices explained very different amounts of the variation in mean DMFT between the different health authori ties. It would be unwise to rely on any one as a method of predicting which sections of the population would be likely to have dental disease.