The Poole Diabetes Study: how many cases of Type 2 diabetes are diagnosed each year during normal health care in a defined community?

We have investigated the incidence of newly diagnosed Type 2 diabetes in th e Poole area and extrapolated it to the rest of the UK. Methods: this prosp ective observational study used a surveillance programme in primary and sec ondary care. We identified all cases of newly diagnosed Type 2 diabetes mel litus occurring from ist May 1996 to 30th June 1998 through the normal heal th care process without ally active screening in 186889 people registered w ith 24 primary care practices in the Poole area. Results: the 1996 prevalen ce of diagnosed Type 2 diabetes in this population was 1.59 (95% CI 1.53-1. 65%)%. During the first 24 months of the study, 706 new cases of Type 2 dia betes mellitus, 383 men and 324 women, were identified. The crude annual in cidence of newly diagnosed Type 2 diabetes, thus was 1.93/1000 (95% CI 1.73 -2.13%) and age/sex adjusted incidence was 1.67/1000 (95% CI 1.49-1.84%). T he age-adjusted incidence was higher in men, 1.86/1000 (95% CI 1.60-2.13), than in women, 1.48/1000 (95% CI 1.25-1.71%), relative risk 1.26 (95% CI 0. 997-1.527%), but this difference did not reach statistical significance. Me an HbA(1c) at diagnosis was 10.8 (S.D. 2.9%)%. Men were younger at diagnosi s than women (mean age, 62.9 vs. 65.9%, P<0.01). Conclusion: in UK, prior t o the change in the WHO diagnostic criteria for diabetes, we estimate that over 98 000 new cases of Type 2 diabetes were diagnosed each year. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.