The release situation of forensic patients at present and the problems of predicting dangerousness

This article presents first results of a prospective prediction study with participation of twenty-three forensic institutions from seven states of FR G. Main objective of this study is the determination of valid criteria for predicting recidivism of mentally disordered offenders. This evaluation (n= 188) investigates which patients are presently released from forensic insti tutions. In comparison to previous studies the releases per annum have decr eased significantly. In the last two years there has been an increase in re lease of schizophrenic patients and a decrease in release of patients with a personality disorder and sexual offenders. In addition it has been analyz ed which criteria therapists use to predict dangerousness from a clinical p oint of view.