Development of a seasonal forecast model for Kuwait winter precipitation

Winter rainfall in Kuwait is important to a variety of activities in the re gion, and accurate forecasts a season in advance would serve many useful fu nctions. In this investigation, we develop a statistical forecast model tha t explains over 70% of the variance in Kuwait winter precipitation. Regiona l sea surface temperatures and several teleconnection indices provide the k ey predictor variables. These six variables are all well documented in term s of their contributions to moisture, instability, and a triggering mechani sm in the atmospheric circulation. The predictor variables are all easily o btained making the model highly operational. (C) 2001 Academic Press.