THE OBSERVED GLOBAL WARMING RECORD - WHAT DOES IT TELL US

Citation
Tml. Wigley et al., THE OBSERVED GLOBAL WARMING RECORD - WHAT DOES IT TELL US, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United Statesof America, 94(16), 1997, pp. 8314-8320
Citations number
43
Categorie Soggetti
Multidisciplinary Sciences
ISSN journal
00278424
Volume
94
Issue
16
Year of publication
1997
Pages
8314 - 8320
Database
ISI
SICI code
0027-8424(1997)94:16<8314:TOGWR->2.0.ZU;2-U
Abstract
Global, neat-surface temperature data sets and their derivations are d iscussed, and differences between the Jones and Intergovernmental Pane l on Climate Change data sets are explained. Global-mean temperature c hanges are then interpreted in terms of anthropogenic forcing influenc es and natural variability: The inclusion of aerosol forcing improves tile fit between modeled and observed changes hot does not improve the agreement between the implied climate sensitivity value and the stand ard model-based range of 1.5-4.5 degrees C equilibrium warming for a C O2 doubling, The implied sensitivity goes from below the model-based r ange of estimates to substantially above this range, The addition of a solar forcing effect. further improves the fit and brings the best-fi t sensitivity into tile middle of the model-based range, Consistency i s further improved when internally generated changes are considered, T his consistency, however, hides manly uncertainties that surround obse rved data/model comparisons, These uncertainties make it impossible cu rrently to use observed global-scale temperature changes to narrow the uncertainty range in the climate sensitivity below that estimated dir ectly from climate models.