THE MEDIA TRADE PRESS AS TECHNOLOGY FORECASTER - A CASE-STUDY OF THE VCRS IMPACT ON BROADCASTING

This paper assesses how the broadcasting and advertising trade press p erformed in their role as technology forecaster, using the introductio n of the VCR and its potential impact on broadcasting as a case study. An examination of the forecasts made within the broadcasting and adve rtising trade press during the early stages of the VCR's development a nd diffusion indicates that the advertising trade press proved much mo re active and much more accurate in forecasting the future of the VCR. The results also indicate the importance of integrating technological and social factors for constructing accurate forecasts.