Partisanship and support for propositions on the ballot: A state-level longitudinal study

Objective. Previous studies suggest that there is reason to believe that ch anges in the partisan composition of a state's electorate will be associate d with changes in the level of support for certain types of propositions on the ballot. Scholars, however, differ over the reasons for this relationsh ip. Some have suggested tile importance of party differences over substanti ve issues. Others have indicated the importance of differences among partis ans in their willingness to defer to legislative judgments or recommendatio ns. Still others have pointed to the importance of partisan cue taking; for example, that Republicans are more likely to vote for propositions put on the ballot by Republican legislatures and Democrats are likely to oppose su ch measures. We test these rival hypotheses. Methods. Using multivariate an alysis and time series techniques, we examine voting patterns on 361 propos itions submitted to voters in Arizona from 1912 to 1996. Results. We find t hat increases in the Republican vote were significantly linked to increase in support for measures submitted by state legislatures, particularly legis latures controlled by Republicans. Conclusions. The findings give some supp ort to deference theory anti to the notion that a subtle process of partisa n cue taking may be involved in proposition voting.